Two years of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and COVID-19 in Lombardy, Italy.

Lombardy, the largest and most densely populated Italian region, was severely hit in February 2020 by the first pandemic wave of SARS-CoV-2 and associated COVID-19. Since then, additional infection waves spread in the region. The aim of this study was to compare the first with the subsequent waves using the administrative database of the Lombardy Welfare directorate. In the time frames of the four 2020-2022 waves, the absolute number of infected cases, sites of management and crude mortality rate associated with SARS-CoV-2 positivity were extracted from the database. Infected cases progressively increased in the region by approximately 5-fold in the second versus the first wave, 4-fold in the third and 20-fold during the most recent wave mainly associated with the omicron variant. The crude death decreased from 18.7% in the first to 2% in the second and third wave to reach a 0.3% nadir at the time of the fourth wave. This study confirms that in Lombardy outcomes of public health and health-care relevance such as deaths and number of hospitalizations declined dramatically across the four virus waves and reached very low values in 2022 when, at variance with the first three SARS-CoV-2 waves, the majority of infected cases had been previously vaccinated.

Post-COVID condition: dispensation of drugs and diagnostic tests as proxies of healthcare impact.

With the goal to increase knowledge on the healthcare impact of the post-COVID-19 condition we exploited the administrative claims database of Lombardy, the largest Italian region and the first after China to be heavily hit by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in February-May 2020. We chose to employ the dispensation of drugs and diagnostic tests as proxies of the impact of the post-COVID condition in 46,574 cases who recovered from COVID-19 and were negative at PCR testing within June 20, 2020. Data were obtained throughout the 18-month post-negativization period until December 2021 and results on the use of drugs and diagnostic tests were compared with those accrued in the same cases during the pre-COVID period in July-December 2019. After an increase in the first semester after SARS-CoV-2 negativization (July-December 2020), trends in the dispensation of drugs according to the broad ATC classes and of diagnostic tests decreased or remained substantially stable. However, dispensation of drugs for acid related disorders (A02), diabetes (A10), heparins (B01AB), direct oral anticoagulants (B01AP), antipsychotics (N05A), antidepressants (N06A) and for obstructive airways diseases (R03) was still higher than in the pre-COVID period. These findings, based upon drug and diagnostic test dispensation as proxies of the healthcare impact of the post-COVID condition, show that in a substantial proportion of recovered cases the post-COVID condition is active and clinically relevant 18 months after the acute disease. The findings also provide indirect evidence of the body organs and systems more compromised in the post-COVID period.

Charlson comorbidity index, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and undertreatment with renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors predict in-hospital mortality of hospitalized COVID-19 patients during the omicron dominant period.

Purpose: To investigate the clinical predictors of in-hospital mortality in hospitalized patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection during the Omicron period. Methods: All consecutive hospitalized laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients between January and May 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. All patients underwent accurate physical, laboratory, radiographic and echocardiographic examination. Primary endpoint was in-hospital mortality. Results: 74 consecutive COVID-19 patients (80.0 ± 12.6 yrs, 45.9% males) were included. Patients who died during hospitalization (27%) and those who were discharged alive (73%) were separately analyzed. Compared to patients discharged alive, those who died were significantly older, with higher comorbidity burden and greater prevalence of laboratory, radiographic and echographic signs of pulmonary and systemic congestion. Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) (OR 1.76, 95%CI 1.07-2.92), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (OR 1.24, 95%CI 1.10-1.39) and absence of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEI)/angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs) therapy (OR 0.01, 95%CI 0.00-0.22) independently predicted the primary endpoint. CCI ≥7 and NLR ≥9 were the best cut-off values for predicting mortality. The mortality risk for patients with CCI ≥7, NLR ≥9 and not in ACEI/ARBs therapy was high (86%); for patients with CCI <7, NLR ≥9, with (16.6%) or without (25%) ACEI/ARBs therapy was intermediate; for patients with CCI <7, NLR <9 and in ACEI/ARBs therapy was of 0%. Conclusions: High comorbidity burden, high levels of NLR and the undertreatment with ACEI/ARBs were the main prognostic indicators of in-hospital mortality. The risk stratification of COVID-19 patients at hospital admission would help the clinicians to take care of the high-risk patients and reduce the mortality.

The usefulness of D-dimer as a predictive marker for mortality in patients with COVID-19 hospitalized during the first wave in Italy.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presents an urgent threat to global health. Identification of predictors of poor outcomes will assist medical staff in treatment and allocating limited healthcare resources. AIMS: The primary aim was to study the value of D-dimer as a predictive marker for in-hospital mortality. METHODS: This was a cohort study. The study population consisted of hospitalized patients (age >18 years), who were diagnosed with COVID-19 based on real-time PCR at 9 hospitals during the first COVID-19 wave in Lombardy, Italy (Feb-May 2020). The primary endpoint was in-hospital mortality. Information was obtained from patient records. Statistical analyses were performed using a Fine-Gray competing risk survival model. Model discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C-index and model calibration was assessed using a calibration plot. RESULTS: Out of 1049 patients, 507 patients (46%) had evaluable data. Of these 507 patients, 96 died within 30 days. The cumulative incidence of in-hospital mortality within 30 days was 19% (95CI: 16%-23%), and the majority of deaths occurred within the first 10 days. A prediction model containing D-dimer as the only predictor had a C-index of 0.66 (95%CI: 0.61-0.71). Overall calibration of the model was very poor. The addition of D-dimer to a model containing age, sex and co-morbidities as predictors did not lead to any meaningful improvement in either the C-index or the calibration plot. CONCLUSION: The predictive value of D-dimer alone was moderate, and the addition of D-dimer to a simple model containing basic clinical characteristics did not lead to any improvement in model performance.

Prognostic value of radiological index and clinical data in patients with COVID-19 infection.

During the Coronavirus-19 pandemic, chest X-ray scoring system have been validated by Al-Smadi and Toussie in this group of patients and even RALE score, previously designed for ARDS, have been used to estimate correlation with mortality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of As-Smadi, Tuossie and RALE scores in predicting death in the same population of patients when associated to clinical data. In this retrospective clinical study, data of patients with COVID-19, admitted to our hospital from 1st October 2020 to 31st December 2020 were collected. CXR images of each patient were analyzed with the three different scores above mentioned. 144 patients (male 96 aged 68.5 years) were included in the study. 93 patients reported a least 1 comorbidity and 36 died. The association with increasing age, presence of comorbidities, and lower hemoglobin was significantly associated with risk of death for all the regression models. When considering the radiological score, a significant effect was found for the Al Smadi and RALE scores, while no evidence of association was found for the Toussie score. The fraction of new information is 16.7% for the Al Smadi score, 12.9% for the RALE and 5.1% for the Toussie score. The improvement in the prognostic usefulness with respect to the base model is particularly interesting for the Al Smadi score. The highest c-index was also obtained by the model with the Al Smadi score.

Impact of the post-COVID-19 condition on health care after the first disease wave in Lombardy.

BACKGROUND: Lombardy was affected in the early months of 2020 by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic with very high morbidity and mortality. The post-COVID-19 condition and related public health burden are scarcely known. SETTING AND DESIGN: Using the regional population administrative database including all the 48,932 individuals who survived COVID-19 and became polymerase-chain-reaction negative for SARS-CoV-2 by 31 May 2020, incident mortality, rehospitalizations, attendances to hospital emergency room, and outpatient medical visits were evaluated over a mid-term period of 6 months in 20,521 individuals managed at home, 26,016 hospitalized in medical wards, and 1611 in intensive care units (ICUs). These data were also evaluated in the corresponding period of 2019, when the region was not yet affected by the pandemic. Other indicators and proxies of the health-care burden related to the post-COVID condition were also evaluated. MAIN RESULTS: In individuals previously admitted to the ICU and medical wards, rehospitalizations, attendances to hospital emergency rooms, and out-patient medical visits were much more frequent in the 6-month period after SARS-CoV-2 negativization than in the same prepandemic period. Performances of spirometry increased more than 50-fold, chest CT scans 32-fold in ICU-admitted cases and 5.5-fold in non-ICU cases, and electrocardiography 5.6-fold in ICU cases and twofold in non-ICU cases. Use of drugs and biochemical tests increased in all cases. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide a real-life picture of the post-COVID condition and of its effects on the increased consumption of health-care resources, considered proxies of comorbidities.

One-year pulmonary impairment after severe COVID-19: a prospective, multicenter follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Long-term pulmonary sequelae following hospitalization for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia is largely unclear. The aim of this study was to identify and characterise pulmonary sequelae caused by SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia at 12-month from discharge. METHODS: In this multicentre, prospective, observational study, patients hospitalised for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia and without prior diagnosis of structural lung diseases were stratified by maximum ventilatory support ("oxygen only", "continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP)" and "invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV)") and followed up at 12 months from discharge. Pulmonary function tests and diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO), 6 min walking test, high resolution CT (HRCT) scan, and modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) dyspnea scale were collected. RESULTS: Out of 287 patients hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia and followed up at 1 year, DLCO impairment, mainly of mild entity and improved with respect to the 6-month follow-up, was observed more frequently in the "oxygen only" and "IMV" group (53% and 49% of patients, respectively), compared to 29% in the "CPAP" group. Abnormalities at chest HRCT were found in 46%, 65% and 80% of cases in the "oxygen only", "CPAP" and "IMV" group, respectively. Non-fibrotic interstitial lung abnormalities, in particular reticulations and ground-glass attenuation, were the main finding, while honeycombing was found only in 1% of cases. Older patients and those requiring IMV were at higher risk of developing radiological pulmonary sequelae. Dyspnea evaluated through mMRC scale was reported by 35% of patients with no differences between groups, compared to 29% at 6-month follow-up. CONCLUSION: DLCO alteration and non-fibrotic interstitial lung abnormalities are common after 1 year from hospitalization due to SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia, particularly in older patients requiring higher ventilatory support. Studies with longer follow-ups are needed.

Six-Month Pulmonary Impairment after Severe COVID-19: A Prospective, Multicentre Follow-Up Study.

BACKGROUND: Long-term pulmonary sequelae following severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pneumonia are not yet confirmed; however, preliminary observations suggest a possible relevant clinical, functional, and radiological impairment. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to identify and characterize pulmonary sequelae caused by SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia at 6-month follow-up. METHODS: In this multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study, patients hospitalized for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia and without prior diagnosis of structural lung diseases were stratified by maximum ventilatory support ("oxygen only," "continuous positive airway pressure," and "invasive mechanical ventilation") and followed up at 6 months from discharge. Pulmonary function tests and diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO), 6-min walking test, chest X-ray, physical examination, and modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) dyspnoea score were collected. RESULTS: Between March and June 2020, 312 patients were enrolled (83, 27% women; median interquartile range age 61.1 [53.4, 69.3] years). The parameters that showed the highest rate of impairment were DLCO and chest X-ray, in 46% and 25% of patients, respectively. However, only a minority of patients reported dyspnoea (31%), defined as mMRC ≥1, or showed restrictive ventilatory defects (9%). In the logistic regression model, having asthma as a comorbidity was associated with DLCO impairment at follow-up, while prophylactic heparin administration during hospitalization appeared as a protective factor. The need for invasive ventilatory support during hospitalization was associated with chest imaging abnormalities. CONCLUSIONS: DLCO and radiological assessment appear to be the most sensitive tools to monitor patients with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during follow-up. Future studies with longer follow-up are warranted to better understand pulmonary sequelae.

The role of chest CT in deciphering interstitial lung involvement: systemic sclerosis versus COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify the main CT features that may help in distinguishing a progression of interstitial lung disease (ILD) secondary to SSc from COVID-19 pneumonia. METHODS: This multicentric study included 22 international readers grouped into a radiologist group (RADs) and a non-radiologist group (nRADs). A total of 99 patients, 52 with COVID-19 and 47 with SSc-ILD, were included in the study. RESULTS: Fibrosis inside focal ground-glass opacities (GGOs) in the upper lobes; fibrosis in the lower lobe GGOs; reticulations in lower lobes (especially if bilateral and symmetrical or associated with signs of fibrosis) were the CT features most frequently associated with SSc-ILD. The CT features most frequently associated with COVID- 19 pneumonia were: consolidation (CONS) in the lower lobes, CONS with peripheral (both central/peripheral or patchy distributions), anterior and posterior CONS and rounded-shaped GGOs in the lower lobes. After multivariate analysis, the presence of CONs in the lower lobes (P < 0.0001) and signs of fibrosis in GGOs in the lower lobes (P < 0.0001) remained independently associated with COVID-19 pneumonia and SSc-ILD, respectively. A predictive score was created that was positively associated with COVID-19 diagnosis (96.1% sensitivity and 83.3% specificity). CONCLUSION: CT diagnosis differentiating between COVID-19 pneumonia and SSc-ILD is possible through a combination of the proposed score and radiologic expertise. The presence of consolidation in the lower lobes may suggest COVID-19 pneumonia, while the presence of fibrosis inside GGOs may indicate SSc-ILD.

Predictors of Worse Prognosis in Young and Middle-Aged Adults Hospitalized with COVID-19 Pneumonia: A Multi-Center Italian Study (COVID-UNDER50).

Obesity as well as metabolic and cardiovascular comorbidities are established, significant predictors of worse prognosis in the overall COVID-19 population, but limited information is available on their roles in young and middle-aged adults (aged ≤ 50 years). The main objectives of the present Italian multi-center study were to describe clinical characteristics and role of selected prognostic predictors in a large cohort of young and middle-aged hospitalized patients. Nine pulmonology units, across north and center of Italy, were involved in this retrospective study. Comorbidities were classified according to their known or potential association with COVID-19. A total of 263 subjects were included. The prevalence of obesity was 25.9%, mechanical ventilation (MV) was needed in 27.7%, and 28 in-hospital deaths occurred (10.6%). Obesity and older age were the only independent, significant predictors for MV. Comorbidities, such as hypertension, diabetes, asthma, and increased D-dimer levels were significantly associated with higher mortality risk, regardless of age, body mass index, and MV. Obesity in young and middle-aged adults is a strong predictor of a more complicated COVID-19, without, however, evidence of a significant effect on in-hospital mortality. Selected comorbidities, including hypertension, diabetes and asthma, significantly impact survival even in a younger population, suggesting the need for prompt recognition of these conditions.

Comorbidities, Cardiovascular Therapies, and COVID-19 Mortality: A Nationwide, Italian Observational Study (ItaliCO).

Background: Italy has one of the world's oldest populations, and suffered one the highest death tolls from Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide. Older people with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), and in particular hypertension, are at higher risk of hospitalization and death for COVID-19. Whether hypertension medications may increase the risk for death in older COVID 19 inpatients at the highest risk for the disease is currently unknown. Methods: Data from 5,625 COVID-19 inpatients were manually extracted from medical charts from 61 hospitals across Italy. From the initial 5,625 patients, 3,179 were included in the study as they were either discharged or deceased at the time of the data analysis. Primary outcome was inpatient death or recovery. Mixed effects logistic regression models were adjusted for sex, age, and number of comorbidities, with a random effect for site. Results: A large proportion of participating inpatients were ≥65 years old (58%), male (68%), non-smokers (93%) with comorbidities (66%). Each additional comorbidity increased the risk of death by 35% [adjOR = 1.35 (1.2, 1.5) p < 0.001]. Use of ACE inhibitors, ARBs, beta-blockers or Ca-antagonists was not associated with significantly increased risk of death. There was a marginal negative association between ARB use and death, and a marginal positive association between diuretic use and death. Conclusions: This Italian nationwide observational study of COVID-19 inpatients, the majority of which ≥65 years old, indicates that there is a linear direct relationship between the number of comorbidities and the risk of death. Among CVDs, hypertension and pre-existing cardiomyopathy were significantly associated with risk of death. The use of hypertension medications reported to be safe in younger cohorts, do not contribute significantly to increased COVID-19 related deaths in an older population that suffered one of the highest death tolls worldwide.

Impact of COVID-19 outbreak in an Italian cohort of patients with systemic sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Mortality rate in patients infected by severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) can be related to the presence of comorbidities like diabetes, cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases. On the contrary, few data exist on the impact of CoronaVirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) on patients with rheumatic disorders, namely in those having pulmonary involvement and treated with immunosuppressive agents. The present survey is aimed at knowing the impact of COVID-19 in a cohort of patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: Telephone interviews were carried out during the COVID-19 outbreak in patients with SSc followed in a Rheumatic Disease Unit in Italy. Patients were asked for confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, symptoms suggestive of COVID-19, and modification of their therapy. RESULTS: A total number of 526 patients with SSc were contacted and interviewed. Of them, 270 and 256 had limited cutaneous and diffuse cutaneous SSc, respectively. Interstitial lung disease (ILD) was present in 45% of patients and most of them (68.2%) were treated with immunosuppressive therapy. Only two patients were hospitalized for COVID-19-related pneumonia, and one of them died despite invasive ventilator support. An additional 11 patients reported flu-like symptoms compatible with a mild form of COVID-19. Nobody modified the therapy during the COVID-19 outbreak. CONCLUSION: Despite the large prevalence of ILD and immunosuppressive therapies, which can be considered risk factors for the occurrence and severity of incidental viral infections, the impact of COVID-19, in terms of mortality rate and morbidity, does not appear particularly severe in this large cohort of patients with SSc. Possible mechanisms influencing this figure are discussed.

Prolonged Low-Dose Methylprednisolone in Patients With Severe COVID-19 Pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: In hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia, progression to acute respiratory failure requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (MV) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Severe dysregulated systemic inflammation is the putative mechanism. We hypothesize that early prolonged methylprednisolone (MP) treatment could accelerate disease resolution, decreasing the need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter observational study to explore the association between exposure to prolonged, low-dose MP treatment and need for ICU referral, intubation, or death within 28 days (composite primary end point) in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia admitted to Italian respiratory high-dependency units. Secondary outcomes were invasive MV-free days and changes in C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. RESULTS: Findings are reported as MP (n = 83) vs control (n = 90). The composite primary end point was met by 19 vs 40 (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.41; 95% CI, 0.24-0.72). Transfer to ICU and invasive MV were necessary in 15 vs 27 (P = .07) and 14 vs 26 (P = .10), respectively. By day 28, the MP group had fewer deaths (6 vs 21; aHR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.12-0.73) and more days off invasive MV (24.0 ±â€…9.0 vs 17.5 ±â€…12.8; P = .001). Study treatment was associated with rapid improvement in PaO2:FiO2 and CRP levels. The complication rate was similar for the 2 groups (P = .84). CONCLUSION: In patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia, early administration of prolonged MP treatment was associated with a significantly lower hazard of death (71%) and decreased ventilator dependence. Treatment was safe and did not impact viral clearance. A large randomized controlled trial (RECOVERY trial) has been performed that validates these findings. Clinical trial registration. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04323592.

Estimates of the initial impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on overall mortality: evidence from Italy.

This study provides evidence of the enormous death toll attributable to COVID-19 https://bit.ly/2X4C6a8.